prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 3 Denver 12 25.1, 19 Baltimore 10 10.4
79% 6 Atlanta 36 28.7, 30 New Orleans 17 14.4
78% 12 Green Bay 16 26.2, 25 Detroit 13 13.6
76% 20 Minnesota 27 30.7, 28 St. Louis 13 18.8
72% 8 Pittsburgh 21 21.0, 16 Chicago 9 13.1
70% 11 Washington 17 24.6, 31 Arizona 13 16.8
69% 29 Tennessee 13 29.7, 32 Houston 10 21.8
66% 9 Cincinnati 23 24.1, 22 Cleveland 20 18.3
62% 5 Dallas 31 24.7, 10 Kansas City 28 20.6
60% 26 New York Jets 26 21.1, 23 Oakland 10 18.5
51% 1 Indianapolis 26 22.7, 13 Jacksonville 18 22.5
38% 17 New England 35 17.9, 24 Buffalo 7 21.3
37% 14 Tampa Bay 20 17.1, 7 Carolina 10 21.0
30% 21 New York Giants 26 16.2, 15 Philadelphia 23 23.7
28% 18 Miami 23 17.8, 2 San Diego 21 26.8
25% 27 San Francisco 41 16.8, 4 Seattle 3 28.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.96 6 1.05 8 0.84 1 1.24 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 11.1 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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