prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 20 Miami 24 22.7, 26 New York Jets 20 12.6
76% 15 Jacksonville 10 25.8, 25 San Francisco 9 14.1
69% 19 Baltimore 48 21.6, 16 Green Bay 3 14.7
66% 10 Carolina 27 24.0, 31 New Orleans 10 18.0
65% 5 New York Giants 27 26.0, 7 Kansas City 17 20.5
64% 8 Chicago 16 20.0, 11 Atlanta 3 15.4
61% 18 Washington 35 20.7, 14 Dallas 7 18.1
61% 12 New England 28 19.4, 6 Tampa Bay 0 16.7
61% 4 Denver 28 20.6, 29 Buffalo 17 17.5
61% 3 Cincinnati 41 24.1, 24 Detroit 17 20.6
48% 9 Seattle 28 22.5, 27 Tennessee 24 23.0
38% 32 Houston 30 20.7, 22 Arizona 19 24.5
33% 23 Philadelphia 17 19.1, 30 St. Louis 16 25.3
28% 28 Cleveland 9 17.3, 21 Oakland 7 27.0
27% 17 Pittsburgh 18 17.4, 13 Minnesota 3 27.1
25% 2 San Diego 26 18.5, 1 Indianapolis 17 30.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 10 1.25 5 0.53 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.6 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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