prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 1 Indianapolis 17 31.6, 21 Arizona 13 14.5
81% 4 Pittsburgh 35 26.8, 30 Detroit 21 11.1
78% 17 Tampa Bay 27 25.0, 28 New Orleans 13 13.0
77% 14 Jacksonville 40 26.8, 26 Tennessee 13 14.2
68% 23 San Francisco 20 26.9, 31 Houston 17 20.0
68% 11 Kansas City 37 27.5, 13 Cincinnati 3 20.3
63% 22 Minnesota 34 20.7, 12 Chicago 10 16.6
62% 27 New York Jets 30 20.2, 25 Buffalo 26 16.9
61% 19 Green Bay 23 22.9, 5 Seattle 17 19.8
41% 9 Washington 31 18.2, 20 Philadelphia 20 20.2
41% 8 New York Giants 30 21.0, 24 Oakland 21 23.2
41% 3 Denver 23 21.0, 2 San Diego 7 23.1
37% 29 Cleveland 20 14.8, 16 Baltimore 16 18.6
33% 10 Carolina 44 17.7, 7 Atlanta 11 23.5
28% 18 Miami 28 15.4, 6 New England 26 22.9
26% 32 St. Louis 20 17.9, 15 Dallas 10 27.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.00 7 1.11 4 0.66 2 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.9 0.82
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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