prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
64% 12 New England 28 21.7, 11 Jacksonville 3 17.2
52% 7 Pittsburgh 31 21.4, 16 Cincinnati 17 21.0
39% 5 Carolina 23 19.3, 9 New York Giants 0 22.1
30% 8 Washington 17 14.5, 10 Tampa Bay 10 21.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.92 2 0.80 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 2 2.5 0.81
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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