prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 1 Denver 27 25.7, 7 New England 13 14.4
68% 5 Seattle 20 24.0, 8 Washington 10 17.4
46% 9 Carolina 29 16.7, 17 Chicago 21 17.5
31% 3 Pittsburgh 21 17.1, 2 Indianapolis 18 24.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 2 0.73 1 1.29 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 2 2.7 0.74
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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