prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 1 Baltimore 15 36.6, 32 Cleveland 14 9.8
79% 13 Washington 31 35.5, 31 Houston 15 17.8
68% 16 St. Louis 16 26.6, 23 Arizona 14 20.2
68% 9 Indianapolis 21 29.2, 25 Jacksonville 14 22.2
67% 20 Carolina 26 23.9, 29 Tampa Bay 24 17.3
61% 21 Miami 13 26.1, 26 Tennessee 10 23.1
61% 3 Seattle 42 27.5, 7 New York Giants 30 24.2
60% 24 Green Bay 31 27.4, 28 Detroit 24 23.9
54% 4 Cincinnati 28 24.6, 6 Pittsburgh 20 23.7
53% 8 Denver 17 24.0, 17 New England 7 23.5
49% 19 Philadelphia 38 25.6, 18 San Francisco 24 25.8
47% 11 New York Jets 28 23.4, 14 Buffalo 20 24.1
39% 15 Chicago 19 22.3, 12 Minnesota 16 25.8
36% 10 New Orleans 23 20.0, 2 Atlanta 3 25.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.95 8 1.18 1 1.26 1 1.13 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 8.9 1.13
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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