prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 89% 1 Baltimore 15 36.6, 32 Cleveland 14 9.8 79% 13 Washington 31 35.5, 31 Houston 15 17.8 68% 16 St. Louis 16 26.6, 23 Arizona 14 20.2 68% 9 Indianapolis 21 29.2, 25 Jacksonville 14 22.2 67% 20 Carolina 26 23.9, 29 Tampa Bay 24 17.3 61% 21 Miami 13 26.1, 26 Tennessee 10 23.1 61% 3 Seattle 42 27.5, 7 New York Giants 30 24.2 60% 24 Green Bay 31 27.4, 28 Detroit 24 23.9 54% 4 Cincinnati 28 24.6, 6 Pittsburgh 20 23.7 53% 8 Denver 17 24.0, 17 New England 7 23.5 49% 19 Philadelphia 38 25.6, 18 San Francisco 24 25.8 47% 11 New York Jets 28 23.4, 14 Buffalo 20 24.1 39% 15 Chicago 19 22.3, 12 Minnesota 16 25.8 36% 10 New Orleans 23 20.0, 2 Atlanta 3 25.4 results by prob (number of games, actual/expected): 50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100% 4 0.95 8 1.18 1 1.26 1 1.13 0 0.00 0 0.00 total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 8.9 1.13 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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