prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 13 Dallas 34 37.2, 32 Houston 6 16.4
65% 7 Chicago 24 29.4, 23 Arizona 23 23.2
63% 6 San Diego 48 29.6, 26 San Francisco 19 24.5
61% 12 Tampa Bay 14 27.1, 25 Cincinnati 13 23.3
61% 8 New York Giants 27 30.4, 27 Atlanta 14 27.3
55% 22 Detroit 20 27.5, 30 Buffalo 17 26.2
54% 24 Denver 13 27.0, 17 Oakland 3 26.0
54% 10 New York Jets 20 26.8, 14 Miami 17 25.9
54% 1 New Orleans 27 29.2, 9 Philadelphia 24 28.2
45% 28 Tennessee 25 28.1, 19 Washington 22 29.2
39% 21 Pittsburgh 45 23.9, 5 Kansas City 7 27.2
33% 29 Carolina 23 21.5, 3 Baltimore 21 28.6
33% 18 Seattle 30 27.0, 2 St. Louis 28 33.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.46 7 0.90 0 0.00 1 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 9 8.0 1.12
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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