prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 7 New York Giants 14 38.2, 32 Houston 10 18.1
78% 3 San Diego 32 36.1, 31 Cleveland 25 22.0
65% 11 Baltimore 26 31.2, 30 Cincinnati 20 25.3
62% 10 Jacksonville 37 30.0, 25 Tennessee 7 25.9
60% 6 Miami 31 29.2, 13 Chicago 13 26.0
53% 26 San Francisco 9 30.4, 27 Minnesota 3 29.7
52% 21 Seattle 16 28.9, 20 Oakland 0 28.5
52% 15 Denver 31 28.1, 18 Pittsburgh 20 27.7
50% 24 Buffalo 24 29.3, 19 Green Bay 10 29.3
44% 23 New Orleans 31 26.0, 17 Tampa Bay 14 27.4
41% 14 Detroit 30 28.5, 8 Atlanta 14 30.6
40% 5 Indianapolis 27 28.1, 2 New England 20 30.9
39% 12 Washington 22 27.2, 4 Dallas 19 30.3
32% 22 Kansas City 31 29.4, 1 St. Louis 17 36.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.24 6 0.80 1 1.27 1 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 8.6 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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