prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
68% 10 Pittsburgh 24 30.9, 31 Cleveland 20 23.3
67% 29 Buffalo 24 32.1, 32 Houston 21 24.3
61% 12 Miami 24 30.1, 28 Minnesota 20 26.7
61% 11 Kansas City 17 30.9, 25 Oakland 13 28.0
59% 23 Jacksonville 26 28.2, 22 New York Giants 10 26.3
54% 20 Carolina 15 30.2, 18 St. Louis 0 29.3
54% 19 Baltimore 24 28.0, 14 Atlanta 10 27.2
52% 3 Dallas 21 29.6, 2 Indianapolis 14 29.1
49% 16 Tampa Bay 20 27.1, 8 Washington 17 27.3
49% 6 Chicago 10 26.5, 7 New York Jets 0 26.7
47% 24 San Francisco 20 28.5, 17 Seattle 14 29.3
41% 30 Cincinnati 31 29.3, 21 New Orleans 16 31.2
40% 5 San Diego 35 27.8, 9 Denver 27 30.3
38% 15 New England 35 27.0, 1 Green Bay 0 31.7
37% 26 Arizona 17 26.8, 13 Detroit 10 31.5
33% 27 Tennessee 31 23.9, 4 Philadelphia 13 30.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.92 8 0.79 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 9.4 0.85
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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