prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 29 New York Jets 26 34.7, 32 Houston 11 21.6
69% 1 St. Louis 20 33.9, 20 San Francisco 17 26.8
63% 12 Minnesota 31 33.3, 26 Arizona 26 28.4
58% 7 Dallas 38 27.0, 16 Tampa Bay 10 25.1
55% 30 Cincinnati 30 28.6, 31 Cleveland 0 27.3
54% 10 Kansas City 19 29.2, 11 Denver 10 28.4
54% 9 Indianapolis 45 30.5, 8 Philadelphia 21 29.7
54% 6 Washington 17 27.9, 21 Carolina 13 27.0
54% 3 New England 17 27.7, 2 Chicago 13 26.7
52% 4 San Diego 21 30.2, 14 Oakland 14 29.7
51% 23 New Orleans 31 31.4, 28 Atlanta 13 31.2
50% 22 Miami 27 28.2, 13 Detroit 10 28.3
49% 24 Seattle 34 29.7, 18 Green Bay 24 29.9
47% 17 Baltimore 27 29.6, 5 Pittsburgh 0 30.2
46% 27 Buffalo 27 26.1, 15 Jacksonville 24 27.0
43% 25 Tennessee 24 28.2, 19 New York Giants 21 29.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 1.15 2 1.52 1 1.30 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 9.1 1.21
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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