prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
65% 1 Chicago 26 30.5, 27 Detroit 21 24.7
64% 14 Denver 24 32.1, 28 Cincinnati 23 26.9
61% 21 Tampa Bay 22 29.3, 31 Cleveland 7 24.9
59% 12 New York Jets 13 27.6, 29 Miami 10 25.4
56% 24 Arizona 26 29.8, 30 San Francisco 20 28.5
56% 20 St. Louis 37 31.1, 10 Washington 31 29.6
52% 15 Green Bay 9 30.3, 9 Minnesota 7 29.8
47% 25 Carolina 10 29.9, 23 Atlanta 3 30.7
44% 22 Kansas City 20 29.6, 19 Oakland 9 31.1
44% 6 New England 24 28.3, 8 Jacksonville 21 29.6
44% 4 San Diego 20 29.3, 2 Seattle 17 30.5
43% 18 New Orleans 30 28.3, 11 New York Giants 7 29.8
41% 17 Baltimore 31 27.9, 7 Pittsburgh 7 30.2
40% 26 Tennessee 30 28.0, 16 Buffalo 29 30.4
40% 13 Philadelphia 23 26.2, 3 Dallas 7 28.8
24% 32 Houston 27 24.4, 5 Indianapolis 24 36.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 0.59 3 1.58 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 7 9.5 0.74
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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