prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
69% 11 Pittsburgh 23 32.0, 30 Cincinnati 17 24.7
63% 32 Houston 14 27.4, 31 Cleveland 6 22.2
62% 1 New England 40 30.7, 27 Tennessee 23 27.0
60% 5 Baltimore 19 30.1, 21 Buffalo 7 26.6
60% 4 Philadelphia 24 30.7, 12 Atlanta 17 28.0
60% 2 Indianapolis 27 31.0, 17 Miami 22 28.4
59% 16 Kansas City 35 30.3, 24 Jacksonville 30 28.0
55% 13 New York Jets 23 28.9, 18 Oakland 3 27.5
50% 20 Carolina 31 28.8, 8 New Orleans 21 28.9
50% 15 San Diego 27 30.3, 22 Arizona 20 30.3
48% 23 New York Giants 34 29.1, 10 Washington 28 29.5
47% 26 Green Bay 26 27.5, 7 Chicago 7 28.3
40% 28 Seattle 23 28.5, 9 Tampa Bay 7 31.3
38% 29 Detroit 39 27.2, 14 Dallas 31 30.8
37% 19 San Francisco 26 27.6, 6 Denver 23 32.3
36% 25 St. Louis 41 28.1, 3 Minnesota 21 33.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.53 9 1.07 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 9.4 0.85
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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