prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
60% 1 New England 37 29.9, 6 New York Jets 16 27.4
58% 11 Philadelphia 23 29.5, 8 New York Giants 20 27.8
50% 15 Seattle 21 29.3, 9 Dallas 20 29.2
44% 19 Indianapolis 23 31.4, 2 Kansas City 8 32.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.34 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 3 2.2 1.34
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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