prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
61% 2 Chicago 27 30.4, 17 Seattle 24 27.1
59% 7 New Orleans 27 30.6, 16 Philadelphia 24 28.5
41% 8 Indianapolis 15 28.2, 14 Baltimore 6 30.5
41% 5 New England 24 30.0, 3 San Diego 21 32.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.56 1 1.64 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 2 2.4 0.84
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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