prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
61% 2 Indianapolis 38 31.6, 3 New England 34 28.7
56% 15 Chicago 39 30.2, 9 New Orleans 14 29.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.80 1 1.65 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 2 2 1.2 1.72
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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