prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
67% 2 Pittsburgh 34 34.6, 31 Cleveland 7 18.9
62% 5 Dallas 45 27.9, 22 New York Giants 35 18.4
61% 6 Indianapolis 41 33.2, 19 New Orleans 10 25.3
60% 3 San Diego 14 28.4, 9 Chicago 3 22.7
59% 10 Seattle 20 24.1, 18 Tampa Bay 6 18.8
55% 29 San Francisco 20 26.8, 28 Arizona 17 24.1
53% 20 Washington 16 24.8, 14 Miami 13 23.3
52% 27 Green Bay 16 24.3, 23 Philadelphia 13 23.5
52% 16 Denver 15 22.6, 25 Buffalo 14 21.7
52% 1 New England 38 22.5, 11 New York Jets 14 21.3
49% 26 Minnesota 24 25.4, 15 Atlanta 3 26.0
49% 24 Detroit 36 21.6, 30 Oakland 21 22.2
46% 13 Cincinnati 27 21.1, 7 Baltimore 20 23.2
41% 17 Carolina 27 20.7, 12 St. Louis 13 25.6
40% 21 Tennessee 13 20.7, 8 Jacksonville 10 28.3
29% 32 Houston 20 19.0, 4 Kansas City 3 39.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.18 4 1.20 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 9.2 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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