prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
71% 2 Pittsburgh 26 31.4, 27 Buffalo 3 12.4
68% 10 Denver 23 29.9, 31 Oakland 20 13.7
63% 11 Baltimore 20 28.2, 25 New York Jets 13 17.8
62% 16 Jacksonville 13 22.2, 28 Atlanta 7 13.6
61% 15 Chicago 20 18.1, 24 Kansas City 10 10.5
61% 1 New England 38 24.6, 4 San Diego 14 17.8
60% 17 Tampa Bay 31 23.0, 26 New Orleans 14 16.6
59% 5 Dallas 37 27.2, 19 Miami 20 23.0
57% 3 Indianapolis 22 25.3, 9 Tennessee 20 21.8
54% 13 Washington 20 21.4, 23 Philadelphia 12 19.4
48% 14 Detroit 20 22.0, 6 Minnesota 17 22.8
45% 18 Green Bay 35 25.2, 20 New York Giants 13 27.3
43% 21 San Francisco 17 21.0, 22 St. Louis 16 24.5
39% 29 Arizona 23 18.4, 8 Seattle 20 25.9
33% 30 Houston 34 12.0, 7 Carolina 21 27.5
31% 32 Cleveland 51 16.0, 12 Cincinnati 45 33.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.90 9 1.05 1 1.42 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 9.8 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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