prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 3 Indianapolis 30 36.5, 31 Houston 24 20.3
79% 4 New England 38 27.3, 29 Buffalo 7 11.4
77% 6 Baltimore 26 30.8, 28 Arizona 23 16.3
76% 2 Pittsburgh 37 29.7, 17 San Francisco 16 17.9
71% 30 Oakland 26 30.6, 32 Cleveland 24 19.1
69% 12 Tampa Bay 24 23.0, 19 St. Louis 3 16.4
66% 16 Kansas City 13 24.9, 24 Minnesota 10 18.5
65% 9 Seattle 24 27.9, 13 Cincinnati 21 21.8
61% 20 New York Jets 31 24.1, 21 Miami 28 20.3
57% 26 Philadelphia 56 23.9, 23 Detroit 21 22.3
49% 15 Green Bay 31 24.7, 7 San Diego 24 25.0
44% 18 Tennessee 31 24.1, 22 New Orleans 14 25.4
44% 1 Dallas 34 18.5, 5 Chicago 10 19.8
39% 10 Jacksonville 23 18.8, 11 Denver 14 22.2
35% 25 Carolina 27 17.8, 14 Atlanta 20 24.1
26% 27 New York Giants 24 18.6, 8 Washington 17 29.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.45 6 1.03 5 1.06 1 1.24 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.7 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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