prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 84% 2 New England 34 39.6, 31 Cleveland 17 16.9 68% 1 Dallas 25 27.1, 26 Buffalo 24 19.2 67% 11 Tennessee 20 27.6, 25 Atlanta 13 19.9 65% 13 Washington 34 27.8, 21 Detroit 3 22.2 65% 3 Indianapolis 33 25.6, 7 Tampa Bay 14 19.4 62% 4 Pittsburgh 21 25.7, 6 Seattle 0 21.8 61% 12 Baltimore 9 25.1, 30 San Francisco 7 22.3 51% 5 San Diego 41 25.2, 15 Denver 3 25.0 49% 24 Carolina 16 24.6, 29 New Orleans 13 24.8 48% 27 New York Giants 35 22.5, 14 New York Jets 24 22.9 45% 10 Chicago 27 21.4, 16 Green Bay 20 22.6 39% 9 Jacksonville 17 18.3, 8 Kansas City 7 21.5 37% 20 Arizona 34 21.7, 19 St. Louis 31 26.2 32% 32 Houston 22 24.1, 17 Miami 19 32.1 results by prob (number of games, actual/expected): 50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100% 4 0.48 9 1.04 0 0.00 1 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00 total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 8 8.7 0.92 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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