2007 Week 5 (7-8 Oct) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 84%   2 New England             34 39.6,    31 Cleveland               17 16.9
 68%   1 Dallas                  25 27.1,    26 Buffalo                 24 19.2
 67%  11 Tennessee               20 27.6,    25 Atlanta                 13 19.9
 65%  13 Washington              34 27.8,    21 Detroit                  3 22.2
 65%   3 Indianapolis            33 25.6,     7 Tampa Bay               14 19.4
 62%   4 Pittsburgh              21 25.7,     6 Seattle                  0 21.8
 61%  12 Baltimore                9 25.1,    30 San Francisco            7 22.3
 51%   5 San Diego               41 25.2,    15 Denver                   3 25.0

 49%  24 Carolina                16 24.6,    29 New Orleans             13 24.8
 48%  27 New York Giants         35 22.5,    14 New York Jets           24 22.9
 45%  10 Chicago                 27 21.4,    16 Green Bay               20 22.6
 39%   9 Jacksonville            17 18.3,     8 Kansas City              7 21.5
 37%  20 Arizona                 34 21.7,    19 St. Louis               31 26.2
 32%  32 Houston                 22 24.1,    17 Miami                   19 32.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                4 0.48   9 1.04   0 0.00   1 1.18   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  14   8   8.7 0.92

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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