prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 2 New England 34 39.6, 31 Cleveland 17 16.9
68% 1 Dallas 25 27.1, 26 Buffalo 24 19.2
67% 11 Tennessee 20 27.6, 25 Atlanta 13 19.9
65% 13 Washington 34 27.8, 21 Detroit 3 22.2
65% 3 Indianapolis 33 25.6, 7 Tampa Bay 14 19.4
62% 4 Pittsburgh 21 25.7, 6 Seattle 0 21.8
61% 12 Baltimore 9 25.1, 30 San Francisco 7 22.3
51% 5 San Diego 41 25.2, 15 Denver 3 25.0
49% 24 Carolina 16 24.6, 29 New Orleans 13 24.8
48% 27 New York Giants 35 22.5, 14 New York Jets 24 22.9
45% 10 Chicago 27 21.4, 16 Green Bay 20 22.6
39% 9 Jacksonville 17 18.3, 8 Kansas City 7 21.5
37% 20 Arizona 34 21.7, 19 St. Louis 31 26.2
32% 32 Houston 22 24.1, 17 Miami 19 32.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.48 9 1.04 0 0.00 1 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 8 8.7 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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