prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 8 San Diego 35 39.7, 32 Houston 10 21.5
76% 1 New England 52 33.0, 12 Washington 7 20.2
67% 11 Tennessee 13 26.9, 26 Oakland 9 20.1
63% 2 Indianapolis 31 28.9, 20 Carolina 7 24.3
61% 3 Pittsburgh 24 26.1, 13 Cincinnati 13 23.0
45% 21 New York Giants 13 25.5, 27 Miami 10 26.7
41% 29 New Orleans 31 24.3, 30 San Francisco 10 26.6
41% 9 Philadelphia 23 22.5, 16 Minnesota 16 24.5
40% 14 Green Bay 19 23.4, 22 Denver 13 25.9
37% 28 Buffalo 13 21.8, 23 New York Jets 3 26.4
37% 24 Detroit 16 21.8, 18 Chicago 7 26.2
37% 19 Jacksonville 24 17.2, 6 Tampa Bay 23 23.1
23% 31 Cleveland 27 19.9, 25 St. Louis 20 33.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.00 6 0.79 2 0.65 1 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 5 8.5 0.59
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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