prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
67% 10 Tennessee 20 26.2, 21 Carolina 7 20.1
64% 3 Pittsburgh 38 25.3, 6 Baltimore 7 20.0
63% 23 Atlanta 20 26.5, 30 San Francisco 16 22.1
62% 11 Tampa Bay 17 24.3, 14 Arizona 10 20.2
61% 22 Detroit 44 28.4, 26 Denver 7 25.1
60% 20 Buffalo 33 27.0, 19 Cincinnati 21 24.4
60% 17 Minnesota 35 25.7, 13 San Diego 17 23.3
49% 4 Dallas 38 25.1, 16 Philadelphia 17 25.3
45% 18 New Orleans 41 23.7, 5 Jacksonville 24 24.8
44% 1 New England 24 27.4, 2 Indianapolis 20 28.7
40% 8 Green Bay 33 23.8, 9 Kansas City 22 26.3
38% 29 Washington 23 22.2, 24 New York Jets 20 26.9
36% 31 Cleveland 33 24.3, 15 Seattle 30 30.3
23% 32 Houston 24 21.5, 28 Oakland 17 35.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.59 7 1.13 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 8.6 0.81
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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