prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 3 Pittsburgh 31 37.5, 31 Cleveland 28 19.0
67% 14 Seattle 24 29.0, 29 San Francisco 0 22.2
63% 6 Green Bay 34 27.0, 12 Minnesota 0 22.4
57% 11 Arizona 31 26.2, 10 Detroit 21 24.8
50% 15 Chicago 17 23.0, 28 Oakland 6 22.9
48% 4 Dallas 31 25.4, 7 New York Giants 20 25.8
43% 18 Philadelphia 33 22.9, 24 Washington 25 24.6
41% 17 San Diego 23 27.3, 2 Indianapolis 21 29.3
40% 25 Buffalo 13 23.5, 27 Miami 10 26.2
38% 23 Atlanta 20 21.5, 19 Carolina 13 25.4
37% 26 St. Louis 37 24.1, 20 New Orleans 29 28.1
37% 16 Jacksonville 28 20.3, 8 Tennessee 13 24.6
33% 30 Denver 27 21.4, 13 Kansas City 11 28.5
33% 22 Cincinnati 21 20.8, 5 Baltimore 7 27.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.59 7 0.44 0 0.00 1 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 5 8.7 0.57
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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