prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
75% 1 New England 31 31.8, 13 Philadelphia 28 19.6
72% 4 Dallas 34 30.7, 24 New York Jets 3 21.4
72% 3 Pittsburgh 3 28.9, 28 Miami 0 18.9
71% 31 Cleveland 27 37.4, 32 Houston 17 29.4
71% 5 Tampa Bay 19 27.9, 26 Washington 13 19.5
68% 7 Jacksonville 36 28.1, 27 Buffalo 14 20.3
65% 18 Chicago 37 27.4, 30 Denver 34 21.0
61% 2 Indianapolis 31 28.2, 22 Atlanta 13 24.6
59% 17 San Diego 32 26.4, 11 Baltimore 14 24.2
48% 19 Cincinnati 35 26.4, 9 Tennessee 6 26.7
47% 6 Green Bay 37 25.9, 12 Detroit 26 26.4
41% 21 New Orleans 31 24.5, 23 Carolina 6 26.8
40% 15 Minnesota 41 23.2, 14 New York Giants 17 25.6
39% 16 Seattle 24 24.3, 20 St. Louis 19 27.3
34% 29 San Francisco 37 22.5, 10 Arizona 31 28.6
33% 25 Oakland 20 21.7, 8 Kansas City 17 28.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.45 7 0.67 5 1.38 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.3 0.87
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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