prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 12 Tennessee 28 39.0, 32 Houston 20 21.9
80% 8 Arizona 27 37.3, 31 Cleveland 21 22.4
69% 2 Indianapolis 28 30.2, 15 Jacksonville 25 22.2
66% 5 Pittsburgh 24 28.4, 20 Cincinnati 10 22.1
65% 9 Minnesota 42 28.8, 19 Detroit 10 23.4
64% 23 St. Louis 28 27.6, 27 Atlanta 16 22.4
64% 3 Dallas 37 28.8, 4 Green Bay 27 23.7
63% 22 Oakland 34 27.9, 29 Denver 20 23.3
61% 24 Carolina 31 26.9, 28 San Francisco 14 23.3
59% 1 New England 27 27.4, 6 Baltimore 24 25.3
42% 21 Buffalo 17 24.8, 25 Washington 16 26.6
42% 7 Tampa Bay 27 23.8, 14 New Orleans 23 25.5
41% 13 New York Giants 21 23.4, 18 Chicago 16 25.4
40% 10 Seattle 28 24.0, 16 Philadelphia 24 26.7
38% 30 New York Jets 40 22.8, 26 Miami 13 27.1
37% 17 San Diego 24 23.9, 11 Kansas City 10 28.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.34 9 1.21 2 1.26 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.3 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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