prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
71% 1 New England 34 30.6, 4 Pittsburgh 13 21.8
67% 7 Green Bay 38 29.7, 26 Oakland 7 23.1
63% 12 Jacksonville 37 26.8, 17 Carolina 6 22.3
62% 24 Buffalo 38 27.5, 30 Miami 17 23.1
62% 11 Seattle 42 30.2, 14 Arizona 21 25.9
61% 27 Denver 41 28.7, 23 Kansas City 7 25.8
58% 3 Dallas 28 28.4, 15 Detroit 27 26.8
54% 28 Washington 24 25.6, 13 Chicago 16 24.7
54% 25 Cincinnati 19 27.3, 22 St. Louis 10 26.5
52% 8 Minnesota 27 26.9, 29 San Francisco 7 26.6
47% 2 Indianapolis 44 24.6, 6 Baltimore 20 25.3
45% 9 San Diego 23 25.7, 18 Tennessee 17 26.8
40% 19 New Orleans 34 24.8, 21 Atlanta 14 27.3
37% 16 New York Giants 16 22.9, 10 Philadelphia 13 27.9
28% 32 Houston 28 24.5, 5 Tampa Bay 14 34.9
24% 31 Cleveland 24 22.4, 20 New York Jets 18 35.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.04 6 1.32 3 0.46 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 9.8 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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