prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
76% 1 New England 20 34.6, 28 New York Jets 10 20.2
67% 4 Minnesota 20 28.6, 18 Chicago 13 22.2
66% 7 Tampa Bay 37 28.4, 23 Atlanta 3 21.7
66% 2 Indianapolis 21 30.6, 29 Oakland 14 24.0
62% 16 San Diego 51 29.5, 21 Detroit 14 25.4
60% 14 New Orleans 31 29.5, 15 Arizona 24 27.1
58% 19 Carolina 13 27.7, 12 Seattle 10 25.7
55% 30 San Francisco 20 27.3, 22 Cincinnati 13 26.2
55% 25 Miami 22 24.7, 13 Baltimore 16 23.4
52% 3 Green Bay 33 27.7, 24 St. Louis 14 27.1
40% 9 Tennessee 26 24.7, 17 Kansas City 17 27.3
39% 31 Cleveland 8 27.5, 26 Buffalo 0 31.3
38% 8 Jacksonville 29 22.5, 5 Pittsburgh 22 26.4
36% 27 Washington 22 24.1, 10 New York Giants 10 29.2
36% 11 Philadelphia 10 23.7, 6 Dallas 6 28.7
33% 32 Houston 31 28.4, 20 Denver 13 36.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.47 9 0.69 1 1.31 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 10.0 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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