prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
65% 7 Seattle 35 30.7, 20 Washington 14 24.7
63% 8 San Diego 17 29.9, 19 Tennessee 6 25.0
38% 9 Jacksonville 31 23.3, 6 Pittsburgh 29 27.0
37% 12 New York Giants 24 23.6, 4 Tampa Bay 14 28.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 4 0.79 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 2 2.5 0.79
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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