prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
67% 1 New England 31 31.6, 5 Jacksonville 20 24.9
64% 3 Green Bay 42 30.6, 8 Seattle 20 25.4
38% 6 New York Giants 21 25.2, 4 Dallas 17 28.9
35% 7 San Diego 28 24.7, 2 Indianapolis 24 30.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 4 0.78 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 2 2.6 0.78
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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