prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
69% 3 Pittsburgh 38 37.8, 32 Houston 17 19.0
65% 1 New England 17 34.5, 18 Kansas City 10 20.3
63% 6 Dallas 28 34.8, 31 Cleveland 10 23.1
61% 8 New York Giants 16 29.2, 26 Washington 7 21.0
60% 10 Philadelphia 38 27.0, 29 St. Louis 3 19.3
60% 5 Green Bay 24 28.1, 11 Minnesota 19 21.8
57% 16 Baltimore 17 23.6, 19 Cincinnati 10 19.3
54% 21 Atlanta 34 25.7, 20 Detroit 21 23.6
52% 14 Tennessee 17 22.5, 7 Jacksonville 10 21.6
52% 12 Arizona 23 24.4, 23 San Francisco 13 23.3
51% 17 New Orleans 24 24.1, 13 Tampa Bay 20 23.3
50% 24 Denver 41 24.5, 30 Oakland 14 24.4
46% 22 Buffalo 34 22.7, 9 Seattle 10 24.7
45% 28 New York Jets 20 19.6, 25 Miami 14 22.7
38% 15 Chicago 29 19.3, 2 Indianapolis 13 29.3
37% 27 Carolina 26 18.5, 4 San Diego 24 29.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.44 7 1.13 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 9.3 1.29
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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