prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
69% 4 Pittsburgh 10 34.2, 32 Cleveland 6 17.9
62% 7 Arizona 31 26.6, 28 Miami 10 17.6
61% 11 New York Giants 41 26.6, 29 St. Louis 13 18.6
61% 6 Green Bay 48 29.6, 26 Detroit 25 23.3
61% 1 New England 19 26.7, 22 New York Jets 10 19.3
58% 12 Denver 39 28.9, 19 San Diego 38 25.3
54% 21 Tampa Bay 24 22.7, 20 Atlanta 9 20.7
54% 3 Dallas 41 21.6, 2 Philadelphia 37 19.5
51% 13 Tennessee 24 20.5, 24 Cincinnati 7 19.9
49% 23 Washington 29 22.8, 16 New Orleans 24 23.1
47% 8 Indianapolis 18 23.2, 17 Minnesota 15 24.5
46% 18 Carolina 20 20.4, 5 Chicago 17 22.6
45% 10 Buffalo 20 19.6, 9 Jacksonville 16 22.2
41% 27 San Francisco 33 18.8, 25 Seattle 30 23.7
35% 30 Oakland 23 13.5, 14 Kansas City 8 26.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 0.82 6 1.32 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 9 8.7 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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