prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 9 Baltimore 28 31.3, 32 Cleveland 10 11.6
81% 10 Tennessee 31 33.4, 31 Houston 12 16.7
76% 5 New York Giants 26 27.3, 26 Cincinnati 23 16.9
75% 8 Buffalo 24 27.7, 28 Oakland 23 16.6
72% 24 Seattle 37 28.5, 30 St. Louis 13 20.2
65% 18 San Francisco 31 27.7, 27 Detroit 13 21.8
64% 13 Minnesota 20 25.5, 22 Carolina 10 20.0
63% 14 Denver 34 30.2, 23 New Orleans 32 25.7
61% 17 San Diego 48 24.4, 19 New York Jets 29 21.2
61% 15 Atlanta 38 23.1, 20 Kansas City 14 19.5
44% 7 Philadelphia 15 19.8, 3 Pittsburgh 6 21.2
40% 25 Washington 24 22.1, 11 Arizona 17 24.6
37% 16 Tampa Bay 27 18.9, 12 Chicago 24 23.4
37% 6 Dallas 27 22.4, 2 Green Bay 16 27.7
28% 21 Jacksonville 23 19.1, 4 Indianapolis 21 27.6
17% 29 Miami 38 14.7, 1 New England 13 32.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 8 1.00 4 1.02 3 0.81 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 10 11.0 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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