prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
76% 1 Dallas 31 29.6, 27 Cincinnati 22 18.7
73% 12 Indianapolis 31 34.0, 31 Houston 27 22.7
68% 3 New York Giants 44 29.8, 22 Seattle 6 22.3
62% 4 Chicago 34 28.6, 26 Detroit 7 24.1
61% 23 Carolina 34 24.6, 28 Kansas City 0 21.1
61% 2 New England 30 28.9, 20 San Francisco 21 25.7
58% 19 Denver 16 26.9, 17 Tampa Bay 13 24.8
47% 24 Miami 17 25.2, 13 San Diego 10 25.8
46% 16 Arizona 41 25.7, 6 Buffalo 17 26.7
46% 14 Minnesota 30 25.6, 21 New Orleans 27 26.5
40% 8 Pittsburgh 26 20.0, 11 Jacksonville 21 22.3
38% 7 Tennessee 13 17.9, 5 Baltimore 10 21.5
36% 18 Atlanta 27 22.5, 9 Green Bay 24 27.8
34% 25 Washington 23 19.2, 10 Philadelphia 17 26.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.36 7 0.90 2 1.35 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 8.7 0.80
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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