2008 Week 5 (5-6 Oct) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 76%   1 Dallas                  31 29.6,    27 Cincinnati              22 18.7
 73%  12 Indianapolis            31 34.0,    31 Houston                 27 22.7
 68%   3 New York Giants         44 29.8,    22 Seattle                  6 22.3
 62%   4 Chicago                 34 28.6,    26 Detroit                  7 24.1
 61%  23 Carolina                34 24.6,    28 Kansas City              0 21.1
 61%   2 New England             30 28.9,    20 San Francisco           21 25.7
 58%  19 Denver                  16 26.9,    17 Tampa Bay               13 24.8

 47%  24 Miami                   17 25.2,    13 San Diego               10 25.8
 46%  16 Arizona                 41 25.7,     6 Buffalo                 17 26.7
 46%  14 Minnesota               30 25.6,    21 New Orleans             27 26.5
 40%   8 Pittsburgh              26 20.0,    11 Jacksonville            21 22.3
 38%   7 Tennessee               13 17.9,     5 Baltimore               10 21.5
 36%  18 Atlanta                 27 22.5,     9 Green Bay               24 27.8
 34%  25 Washington              23 19.2,    10 Philadelphia            17 26.0

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                5 0.36   7 0.90   2 1.35   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  14   7   8.7 0.80

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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