prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
71% 17 Minnesota 12 32.0, 30 Detroit 10 23.5
64% 22 New Orleans 34 29.1, 27 Oakland 3 23.7
64% 15 New York Jets 26 28.6, 25 Cincinnati 14 23.2
61% 5 Indianapolis 31 23.6, 10 Baltimore 3 20.2
59% 12 Green Bay 27 28.2, 26 Seattle 17 26.1
55% 14 Tampa Bay 27 23.1, 7 Carolina 3 21.9
54% 8 Philadelphia 40 22.8, 20 San Francisco 26 21.8
53% 13 Atlanta 22 24.9, 6 Chicago 20 24.2
49% 11 Jacksonville 24 25.6, 21 Denver 17 25.8
39% 18 Arizona 30 26.0, 2 Dallas 24 29.4
38% 19 San Diego 30 27.7, 1 New England 10 31.7
37% 29 St. Louis 19 22.6, 23 Washington 17 27.4
33% 31 Houston 29 24.6, 24 Miami 28 32.1
19% 32 Cleveland 35 19.5, 3 New York Giants 14 35.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.47 7 0.68 1 1.42 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 8 8.6 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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