prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
76% 22 Washington 14 34.1, 31 Cleveland 11 20.8
68% 1 New England 41 32.2, 21 Denver 7 24.7
63% 13 New York Giants 29 27.0, 24 San Francisco 17 22.3
63% 4 Tennessee 34 25.7, 27 Kansas City 10 20.8
61% 18 Tampa Bay 20 26.0, 25 Seattle 10 22.1
61% 10 Carolina 30 26.7, 15 New Orleans 7 23.4
61% 5 Green Bay 34 28.3, 9 Indianapolis 14 24.5
61% 3 Chicago 48 26.9, 8 Minnesota 41 23.5
57% 11 Pittsburgh 38 23.9, 26 Cincinnati 10 22.3
55% 20 Buffalo 23 26.0, 12 San Diego 14 25.0
48% 16 Baltimore 27 22.1, 23 Miami 13 22.7
38% 30 Oakland 16 22.8, 14 New York Jets 13 27.2
37% 32 Houston 28 28.6, 29 Detroit 21 33.6
34% 28 St. Louis 34 23.7, 2 Dallas 14 30.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.22 10 1.11 1 1.31 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 8.7 1.15
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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