prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
75% 10 Baltimore 41 32.6, 32 Houston 13 21.2
72% 16 San Diego 20 31.7, 29 Kansas City 19 22.7
70% 17 Denver 34 32.8, 31 Cleveland 30 23.4
70% 5 New York Jets 47 30.8, 27 St. Louis 3 22.1
68% 2 New England 20 30.5, 22 Buffalo 10 23.2
64% 15 Arizona 29 30.5, 24 San Francisco 24 25.3
62% 14 Jacksonville 38 27.1, 28 Detroit 14 23.5
62% 9 Atlanta 34 29.2, 18 New Orleans 20 25.0
60% 23 Miami 21 26.2, 25 Seattle 19 23.6
60% 20 Carolina 17 25.0, 30 Oakland 6 22.3
48% 19 Minnesota 28 26.0, 4 Green Bay 27 26.4
39% 12 Tennessee 21 22.7, 8 Chicago 14 25.8
39% 11 Indianapolis 24 22.0, 7 Pittsburgh 20 24.9
38% 6 New York Giants 36 22.0, 1 Philadelphia 31 25.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.17 7 0.91 4 1.39 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 9.0 1.12
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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