prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 1 Tennessee 28 37.7, 31 Cleveland 9 20.0
69% 18 San Diego 34 29.4, 29 Oakland 7 21.3
69% 7 Indianapolis 35 29.3, 26 Cincinnati 3 21.5
67% 16 Denver 24 30.7, 27 Kansas City 17 23.8
65% 20 Arizona 34 30.4, 28 St. Louis 10 24.6
65% 8 Baltimore 24 25.7, 22 Washington 10 19.6
64% 11 Chicago 23 28.0, 23 Jacksonville 10 22.5
63% 14 Minnesota 20 31.2, 30 Detroit 16 26.3
61% 12 New Orleans 29 29.0, 19 Atlanta 25 25.6
60% 13 Carolina 38 26.5, 17 Tampa Bay 23 23.2
60% 9 Pittsburgh 20 25.0, 10 Dallas 13 22.4
59% 6 New England 24 27.5, 24 Seattle 21 25.6
48% 21 Miami 16 24.7, 25 Buffalo 3 25.2
46% 15 San Francisco 24 27.0, 2 New York Jets 14 27.9
40% 5 Philadelphia 20 24.1, 4 New York Giants 14 26.5
17% 32 Houston 24 22.5, 3 Green Bay 21 41.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.44 10 1.55 0 0.00 2 0.61 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 12 10.3 1.16
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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