prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
78% 11 Pittsburgh 31 34.6, 32 Cleveland 0 19.4
72% 12 Green Bay 31 33.1, 30 Detroit 21 23.7
65% 3 Baltimore 27 26.1, 22 Jacksonville 7 20.1
64% 14 Atlanta 31 28.6, 26 St. Louis 27 22.7
63% 17 San Francisco 27 25.9, 24 Washington 24 21.2
63% 6 Philadelphia 44 26.6, 15 Dallas 6 22.5
61% 18 San Diego 52 30.0, 20 Denver 21 26.9
61% 2 Indianapolis 23 27.3, 7 Tennessee 0 23.5
60% 25 Cincinnati 16 27.7, 28 Kansas City 6 24.9
60% 5 Minnesota 20 28.2, 4 New York Giants 19 25.5
55% 1 New England 13 27.4, 16 Buffalo 0 26.3
49% 27 Arizona 34 27.3, 23 Seattle 21 27.6
40% 9 Carolina 33 26.0, 8 New Orleans 31 28.5
39% 19 Miami 24 23.3, 13 New York Jets 17 26.3
33% 29 Oakland 31 20.6, 21 Tampa Bay 24 27.8
27% 31 Houston 31 25.2, 10 Chicago 24 35.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.60 10 1.28 3 0.90 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 10.1 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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