prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
59% 9 San Diego 23 29.1, 8 Indianapolis 17 27.0
57% 2 Baltimore 27 25.1, 19 Miami 9 23.6
48% 29 Arizona 30 28.0, 22 Atlanta 24 28.4
40% 6 Philadelphia 26 24.7, 7 Minnesota 14 27.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.88 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 2 2.3 0.88
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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