prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
61% 12 Pittsburgh 35 27.5, 15 San Diego 24 24.3
39% 7 Philadelphia 23 23.6, 4 New York Giants 11 26.7
38% 3 Baltimore 13 21.9, 1 Tennessee 10 26.0
34% 25 Arizona 33 24.7, 5 Carolina 13 31.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 4 0.40 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 1 2.5 0.40
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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