prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
74% 21 Washington 9 25.8, 32 St. Louis 7 6.6
70% 10 Minnesota 27 34.7, 31 Detroit 13 22.8
68% 16 Denver 27 27.5, 29 Cleveland 6 14.7
67% 17 Atlanta 28 24.3, 26 Carolina 20 12.2
64% 18 Buffalo 33 25.3, 22 Tampa Bay 20 17.0
62% 4 Indianapolis 27 20.2, 25 Miami 23 12.9
58% 7 New York Jets 16 23.0, 2 New England 9 19.8
43% 20 San Francisco 23 14.3, 13 Seattle 10 17.0
41% 19 Chicago 17 14.4, 3 Pittsburgh 14 18.1
40% 27 Oakland 13 20.5, 24 Kansas City 10 25.1
40% 8 Baltimore 31 23.5, 6 San Diego 26 27.6
38% 14 New York Giants 33 22.3, 5 Dallas 31 28.7
33% 23 Arizona 31 14.8, 15 Jacksonville 17 26.4
30% 30 Cincinnati 31 10.7, 12 Green Bay 24 26.0
29% 28 Houston 34 9.2, 9 Tennessee 31 25.6
28% 11 New Orleans 48 21.0, 1 Philadelphia 22 34.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.57 8 0.78 5 0.56 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 7 10.4 0.67
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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