prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 1 New Orleans 31 33.3, 24 San Francisco 17 18.8
79% 14 Buffalo 31 26.1, 32 St. Louis 14 13.5
75% 7 New York Jets 56 25.4, 17 Arizona 35 15.6
67% 3 Pittsburgh 23 21.8, 4 Baltimore 20 16.4
65% 6 San Diego 28 24.5, 29 Oakland 18 19.5
63% 21 Jacksonville 30 23.5, 19 Houston 27 18.8
63% 13 Chicago 24 23.4, 10 Philadelphia 20 18.9
63% 11 Tennessee 30 23.3, 12 Minnesota 17 18.9
52% 25 Tampa Bay 30 23.9, 16 Green Bay 21 23.6
40% 27 Carolina 24 18.9, 15 Atlanta 9 21.4
38% 28 Kansas City 33 19.7, 18 Denver 19 22.9
24% 30 Cleveland 20 13.4, 23 Cincinnati 12 23.4
24% 26 Washington 26 15.8, 9 Dallas 24 26.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.90 6 1.31 4 0.65 1 1.25 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 13 9 8.8 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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