prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 86% 2 Pittsburgh 28 35.1, 31 Detroit 20 16.2 83% 7 New York Giants 44 28.8, 30 Oakland 7 13.0 82% 11 Minnesota 38 29.0, 32 St. Louis 10 14.8 71% 13 Philadelphia 33 26.3, 23 Tampa Bay 14 18.4 62% 26 Carolina 20 19.2, 27 Washington 17 15.9 62% 12 Dallas 26 24.6, 28 Kansas City 20 21.3 59% 21 Arizona 28 29.0, 17 Houston 21 27.1 55% 24 Seattle 41 21.1, 15 Jacksonville 0 20.0 55% 18 Miami 31 20.3, 9 New York Jets 27 19.3 55% 1 Indianapolis 31 21.8, 10 Tennessee 9 20.8 40% 16 Atlanta 45 17.1, 22 San Francisco 10 19.3 38% 20 Denver 20 20.9, 4 New England 17 24.7 25% 29 Cleveland 6 15.7, 19 Buffalo 3 24.6 22% 25 Cincinnati 17 14.3, 5 Baltimore 14 26.4 results by prob (number of games, actual/expected): 50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100% 5 1.40 3 1.08 3 0.45 3 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00 total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 9.4 1.06 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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