prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 2 Pittsburgh 28 35.1, 31 Detroit 20 16.2
83% 7 New York Giants 44 28.8, 30 Oakland 7 13.0
82% 11 Minnesota 38 29.0, 32 St. Louis 10 14.8
71% 13 Philadelphia 33 26.3, 23 Tampa Bay 14 18.4
62% 26 Carolina 20 19.2, 27 Washington 17 15.9
62% 12 Dallas 26 24.6, 28 Kansas City 20 21.3
59% 21 Arizona 28 29.0, 17 Houston 21 27.1
55% 24 Seattle 41 21.1, 15 Jacksonville 0 20.0
55% 18 Miami 31 20.3, 9 New York Jets 27 19.3
55% 1 Indianapolis 31 21.8, 10 Tennessee 9 20.8
40% 16 Atlanta 45 17.1, 22 San Francisco 10 19.3
38% 20 Denver 20 20.9, 4 New England 17 24.7
25% 29 Cleveland 6 15.7, 19 Buffalo 3 24.6
22% 25 Cincinnati 17 14.3, 5 Baltimore 14 26.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.40 3 1.08 3 0.45 3 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 9.4 1.06
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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