prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
75% 16 Houston 28 28.3, 30 Detroit 21 19.7
64% 4 New England 41 23.4, 19 Denver 7 16.7
62% 1 New York Giants 29 23.1, 26 San Francisco 17 15.1
60% 10 Carolina 30 22.1, 13 New Orleans 7 20.6
60% 3 Pittsburgh 38 18.7, 18 Cincinnati 10 17.1
59% 20 Washington 14 17.1, 21 Cleveland 11 13.8
59% 11 Chicago 48 21.0, 12 Minnesota 41 17.3
54% 8 Tennessee 34 18.2, 28 Kansas City 10 17.7
50% 23 Tampa Bay 20 19.0, 7 Seattle 10 18.9
49% 6 Baltimore 27 18.0, 17 Miami 13 18.1
45% 14 Green Bay 34 22.9, 2 Indianapolis 14 23.7
41% 31 Oakland 16 16.7, 15 New York Jets 13 19.7
40% 32 St. Louis 34 17.4, 25 Dallas 14 20.6
40% 27 Buffalo 23 20.4, 9 San Diego 14 22.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.96 2 1.59 1 1.33 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 8.3 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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