2009 Week 6 (17-19 Oct) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred
 75%  16 Houston                 28 28.3,    30 Detroit                 21 19.7
 64%   4 New England             41 23.4,    19 Denver                   7 16.7
 62%   1 New York Giants         29 23.1,    26 San Francisco           17 15.1
 60%  10 Carolina                30 22.1,    13 New Orleans              7 20.6
 60%   3 Pittsburgh              38 18.7,    18 Cincinnati              10 17.1
 59%  20 Washington              14 17.1,    21 Cleveland               11 13.8
 59%  11 Chicago                 48 21.0,    12 Minnesota               41 17.3
 54%   8 Tennessee               34 18.2,    28 Kansas City             10 17.7
 50%  23 Tampa Bay               20 19.0,     7 Seattle                 10 18.9

 49%   6 Baltimore               27 18.0,    17 Miami                   13 18.1
 45%  14 Green Bay               34 22.9,     2 Indianapolis            14 23.7
 41%  31 Oakland                 16 16.7,    15 New York Jets           13 19.7
 40%  32 St. Louis               34 17.4,    25 Dallas                  14 20.6
 40%  27 Buffalo                 23 20.4,     9 San Diego               14 22.7

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               11 0.96   2 1.59   1 1.33   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  14   9   8.3 1.09

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net