prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
65% 16 Minnesota 27 26.4, 32 Detroit 10 17.8
60% 21 Miami 25 19.4, 13 Tampa Bay 23 17.4
60% 12 Green Bay 17 26.5, 18 Dallas 7 22.4
60% 8 Baltimore 16 16.4, 27 Cleveland 0 13.7
60% 5 Tennessee 41 19.2, 15 Buffalo 17 13.4
59% 23 Washington 27 19.5, 29 Denver 17 15.8
59% 20 New Orleans 28 23.1, 30 St. Louis 23 20.5
59% 10 Carolina 28 21.0, 26 Atlanta 19 16.4
59% 6 San Diego 31 23.3, 4 Philadelphia 23 20.5
58% 22 San Francisco 10 20.1, 17 Chicago 6 18.8
56% 3 Indianapolis 35 20.3, 1 New England 34 19.3
55% 28 Arizona 31 24.4, 19 Seattle 20 23.7
55% 25 Kansas City 16 16.3, 31 Oakland 10 15.4
41% 24 Jacksonville 24 17.0, 11 New York Jets 22 21.0
41% 9 Cincinnati 18 14.3, 2 Pittsburgh 12 20.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
14 1.47 1 1.53 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 15 13 8.8 1.47
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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