prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
66% 14 Dallas 24 21.5, 31 Oakland 7 13.3
65% 7 San Diego 43 24.3, 24 Kansas City 14 16.7
64% 9 Cincinnati 16 19.0, 25 Cleveland 7 12.4
62% 6 Tennessee 20 24.7, 26 Arizona 17 18.2
61% 12 Green Bay 34 26.6, 32 Detroit 12 21.1
61% 4 Philadelphia 27 21.4, 21 Washington 24 14.0
60% 23 San Francisco 20 19.3, 20 Jacksonville 3 17.6
60% 22 Buffalo 31 19.0, 18 Miami 14 17.2
60% 15 New York Jets 17 19.7, 11 Carolina 6 17.8
60% 2 Baltimore 20 16.9, 3 Pittsburgh 17 14.5
59% 10 Minnesota 36 23.5, 19 Chicago 10 19.2
58% 27 Atlanta 20 20.5, 13 Tampa Bay 17 19.0
58% 5 Indianapolis 35 21.7, 16 Houston 27 20.6
52% 28 Seattle 27 17.8, 30 St. Louis 17 17.5
41% 17 New Orleans 38 23.0, 1 New England 17 26.3
40% 29 Denver 26 19.2, 8 New York Giants 6 21.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 1.37 6 1.58 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 14 9.6 1.45
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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