prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
67% 8 Cincinnati 23 23.9, 32 Detroit 13 15.2
60% 29 Seattle 20 19.6, 18 San Francisco 17 17.8
60% 24 Chicago 17 20.2, 30 St. Louis 9 15.1
60% 13 Green Bay 27 20.1, 3 Baltimore 14 18.1
59% 11 Carolina 16 19.0, 15 Tampa Bay 6 15.6
59% 10 New York Giants 31 23.2, 17 Dallas 24 19.2
59% 5 Indianapolis 27 20.4, 7 Tennessee 17 16.6
59% 4 San Diego 30 20.7, 27 Cleveland 23 16.6
58% 23 Jacksonville 23 21.4, 16 Houston 18 20.2
57% 14 New Orleans 33 22.2, 21 Washington 30 21.2
57% 6 Philadelphia 34 22.0, 22 Atlanta 7 20.8
43% 25 Arizona 30 23.8, 9 Minnesota 17 24.7
42% 12 New York Jets 19 17.5, 20 Buffalo 13 18.7
41% 26 Denver 44 17.3, 28 Kansas City 13 19.8
41% 19 Miami 22 19.3, 1 New England 21 22.4
26% 31 Oakland 27 8.8, 2 Pittsburgh 24 20.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 1.18 2 1.58 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 9.6 1.14
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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