prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
72% 2 Indianapolis 28 23.9, 25 Denver 16 15.8
70% 3 Baltimore 48 23.8, 32 Detroit 3 13.0
68% 6 Tennessee 47 21.0, 31 St. Louis 7 11.4
62% 1 New England 20 22.5, 10 Carolina 10 15.6
60% 17 Houston 34 23.8, 29 Seattle 7 19.2
59% 18 San Francisco 24 23.0, 26 Arizona 9 20.3
59% 12 Minnesota 30 20.8, 8 Cincinnati 10 17.9
55% 11 Green Bay 21 21.5, 21 Chicago 14 20.8
52% 22 Washington 34 15.2, 30 Oakland 13 15.0
51% 16 New Orleans 26 25.3, 23 Atlanta 23 25.2
51% 4 San Diego 20 22.7, 14 Dallas 17 22.6
41% 27 Cleveland 13 14.3, 5 Pittsburgh 6 17.6
41% 7 Philadelphia 45 19.7, 9 New York Giants 38 21.4
40% 20 Buffalo 16 16.0, 28 Kansas City 10 17.9
40% 19 Miami 14 18.3, 24 Jacksonville 10 20.3
40% 15 New York Jets 26 16.5, 13 Tampa Bay 3 19.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 1.02 2 1.54 2 1.41 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 9.6 1.15
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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