prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
62% 6 San Diego 27 22.7, 15 Cincinnati 24 16.6
62% 5 Philadelphia 27 22.5, 19 San Francisco 13 16.0
61% 2 Baltimore 31 20.4, 24 Chicago 7 13.2
60% 13 Houston 16 21.9, 31 St. Louis 13 18.1
60% 11 Carolina 26 19.6, 8 Minnesota 7 17.9
60% 4 Indianapolis 35 20.2, 22 Jacksonville 31 18.0
60% 3 Tennessee 27 21.9, 18 Miami 24 15.7
59% 26 Arizona 31 26.1, 32 Detroit 24 22.3
59% 7 Pittsburgh 37 21.6, 10 Green Bay 36 18.4
59% 1 New England 17 20.5, 20 Buffalo 10 17.2
54% 9 New York Giants 45 19.6, 23 Washington 12 18.9
48% 14 Tampa Bay 24 17.4, 29 Seattle 7 17.8
41% 25 Atlanta 10 17.0, 12 New York Jets 7 21.0
41% 17 Dallas 24 23.5, 16 New Orleans 17 27.1
40% 21 Cleveland 41 14.9, 28 Kansas City 34 17.0
38% 30 Oakland 20 14.0, 27 Denver 19 19.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 1.14 4 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 9.5 1.16
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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