prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
70% 19 San Francisco 20 24.1, 32 Detroit 6 15.5
70% 6 Philadelphia 30 24.0, 28 Denver 27 16.1
69% 25 Arizona 31 23.8, 31 St. Louis 10 16.6
66% 10 Green Bay 48 25.2, 29 Seattle 10 17.7
66% 2 New England 35 24.1, 20 Jacksonville 7 15.4
60% 22 Cleveland 23 17.5, 30 Oakland 9 12.4
60% 14 Cincinnati 17 20.0, 27 Kansas City 10 15.4
59% 21 Atlanta 31 18.8, 18 Buffalo 3 15.8
56% 7 Pittsburgh 23 17.6, 1 Baltimore 20 16.5
46% 16 Dallas 17 18.6, 23 Washington 0 19.2
46% 13 Houston 27 20.9, 24 Miami 20 21.5
45% 26 Chicago 36 19.5, 12 Minnesota 30 20.3
41% 9 Tampa Bay 20 18.9, 17 New Orleans 17 22.3
41% 8 Carolina 41 17.2, 11 New York Giants 9 20.3
40% 5 San Diego 42 19.7, 3 Tennessee 17 21.8
35% 15 New York Jets 29 15.5, 4 Indianapolis 15 22.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.69 5 1.19 1 1.43 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 9.8 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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