prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
60% 12 Dallas 34 20.9, 10 Philadelphia 14 18.6
51% 8 New York Jets 24 16.9, 18 Cincinnati 14 16.8
41% 3 Baltimore 33 16.7, 1 New England 14 21.3
40% 24 Arizona 51 22.9, 7 Green Bay 45 24.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.87 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 2 2.3 0.87
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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